El Niño may reach unprecedented strength, raising global weather risks: WMO

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Pacific Ocean temperatures could rise 3.8°C above average during November-January, increasing risks of drought, floods and extreme heat

By Gayathri G

Updated - October 21, 2026 at 09:49 PM. | Chennai

Andhra Pradesh. CHITTOOR. July 31. 26. As El Nino conditions intensify, grazing lands turned parched near Nagari in Chittoor district. By Arrangement | Photo Credit: ARRANGEMENT

The ongoing El Niño event could reach unprecedented strength by the end of this year, disrupting global rainfall and temperature patterns and raising the risk of droughts, floods and extreme heat, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned.

The UN weather agency’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update forecasts sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, where El Niño originates, could rise to 3.8°C above average during November 2026 to January 2027. The event is expected to peak towards the end of this year, although its effects could persist well into 2027.

“This is literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said on Wednesday, calling for urgent action to protect vulnerable communities.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It alters atmospheric circulation, shifting rainfall patterns and influencing temperatures across regions. The WMO uses a sea-surface temperature anomaly of 0.5°C as the threshold for declaring El Niño conditions.

Uneven impact

The intensity of the developing event could amplify weather-related risks across several regions, with the effects varying according to local climate conditions. The WMO outlook points to an increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions in parts of East Africa during the October-December rainy season, raising concerns about flooding.

Southern Africa faces a higher risk of drier conditions from November, potentially affecting crop production, water availability and livelihoods. South-East Asia is expected to experience warmer conditions and rainfall deficits, adding to pressure on agriculture and water supplies while increasing the risk of wildfires and smoke haze.

Parts of the Americas could see heavier rainfall, while drought risks are elevated in parts of Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon basin, according to the outlook.

Implications for farming, water

Changes in rainfall and temperature can have far-reaching consequences for agriculture, energy, water management and public health. Drought can reduce crop yields and tighten water supplies, while intense rainfall can damage crops, infrastructure and livelihoods. Extreme heat can also increase pressure on power demand and health services.

The WMO has urged governments and humanitarian agencies to use seasonal forecasts and early-warning systems to prepare for the likely impacts.

Published on October 21, 2026

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